Elements of the Research Strategy.

1. Research to Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation)

Climate Change and Ecosystem Sustainability

The capacity of forests and grasslands to maintain current health, productivity, diversity, and resilience will likely be compromised under a changing climate. The efficacy of current management practices under a changing climate will depend upon the nature of the climatic changes (spatial, temporal), the vulnerability of ecosystems to these changes, and the current status and degree of human alteration of the ecosystem (i.e., presence of invasives, departure from historical fire regimes, condition of watersheds). Developing an adaptation strategy to maintain and enhance forest and rangeland sustainability will involve evaluating different types of uncertainty (e.g., environmental conditions, models, data, resources, planning horizons, adaptive capacity tied to place) so that multiple adaptation options can be identified for the management of forest and grasslands under changing climates.

Current Research

Research on adaptation is primarily focused on maintaining ecosystem health as much as possible, thereby protecting the goods and services ecosystems produce (e.g., air pollutant removal, clean and abundant water supplies, habitats to maintain wildlife and biodiversity, cycling of important nutrients, reducing success of exotic invasive species, recreation and aesthetics, etc.). Identifying the key vulnerabilities will require an understanding of: the magnitude of the potential impacts; the timing of impacts; the persistence and reversibility of impacts; the likelihood of impacts and confidence of those estimates; the potential for adaptation; the distributional aspect of impacts and vulnerabilities (disadvantaged sectors or communities); and, the importance of the system at risk. Forests, woodlands, and grasslands ecosystems are set within a context of social and economic systems. Adaptation and sustaining health, productivity, and biodiversity of these ecosystems will be a function of the adaptive capacity and interactions of all of these combined systems.

The strategy is to affect ecosystem processes by altering growth, composition and structure to better withstand the suite of environmental stresses from changing climate, pests, pollutants, storms and unnaturally severe wildfire. As climatic stress increases in the future, plant and animal population adjustments, range shifts and other adaptations may need to be facilitated so that species and ecosystems are capable of establishing and maturing under new climate regimes without catastrophic failure. For example, altering species composition, reducing tree densities, and managing for uneven-age forests are some of the options that can enhance the water and nutrients available to remaining trees, thereby also increasing tree resistance to pests, reducing the spread of wildfire, and enhancing resistance to pollutants such as ozone and sulfur dioxide. Some species and ecosystems may require intensive management actions to maintain viability or resilience; others may require reduction of current stressors, and still others, less intensive management to sustain the production of the values and services that healthy forests provide.

Research Needs

• Improving our understanding of the potential impacts of a changing climate on the physical environment (e.g. erosion) and watershed dynamics.

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